Back-to-School Campaigns Risk Major Waste as Report Reveals Critical Data Inaccuracies
As brands brace for the second-biggest retail season of the year, Truthset’s Q1 2025 Industry Report paints a concerning picture: the consumer data powering back-to-school campaigns is riddled with inaccuracies.
Chief among the issues is that only 41% of data claiming a household has children is actually accurate. This misalignment between targeting data and real-world household makeup threatens the efficacy of one of the year’s most competitive marketing periods.
“Marketers are relying on data they think is passing the test,” said Scott McKinley, CEO of Truthset. “But during high-stakes seasons like back-to-school, even small inaccuracies can lead to massive media waste and brand damage.”
The financial implications are significant. A marketer working with a $1 million media budget at a $10 CPM could be wasting as much as $590,000 if household targeting data is flawed. That misfire inflates the effective CPM to over $24, decimating campaign ROI and potentially eroding brand trust among overwhelmed parents.
What’s Driving the Disconnect
Truthset’s analysis identifies household income data as another weak point, averaging just 46% accuracy. For marketers, this creates a precarious messaging landscape since luxury campaigns might reach budget-conscious families, while discount-driven messaging hits affluent consumers, reducing campaign resonance.
Age targeting remains unreliable, particularly for Gen Z. Although accuracy for 18–24-year-olds ticked up 4 points to 56%, the figure still leaves advertisers with what amounts to a coin toss when attempting to connect with younger demographics.
Political affiliation is even less stable. The report shows Independents with only 29% accuracy, making sentiment-based segmentation a risky bet for campaigns navigating cultural or value-based narratives.
The Silver Lining: Reliable Anchors
Not all data is broken. Homeownership data is holding strong with 83% accuracy, offering a more reliable proxy for targeting certain verticals, such as insurance or home improvement. Region-level geographic data is also solid, scoring 93% accuracy, giving marketers confidence in location-based strategies.
What This Means for Communicators in 2025
For the remainder of the year—and especially the critical back-to-school window—communicators should proceed with caution when relying on third-party data. The report makes a strong case for enhanced data validation, first-party data prioritization, and transparency in segmentation.
Reputation is on the line. Irrelevant messaging during moments that matter can prompt audiences to disengage not just from a campaign but from the brand itself.
The takeaway: precision matters. Brands need to move beyond surface-level segmentation and demand accuracy at the attribute level. With media dollars and trust in play, targeting with intention and validation is no longer a luxury, it’s a necessity.
